US Payrolls Are Seen Picking Up After End of UAW Strike

(Bloomberg) -- The return of striking United Auto Workers to vehicle assembly lines is seen driving a pickup in November payrolls, representing a pause in the recent trend of moderating US employment growth.

Government data on Friday are projected to show payrolls in the world’s largest economy increased by 180,000 after a 150,000 October advance. Such a print would still leave average job growth over the past three months down about 100,000 from the pace seen earlier in the year.

The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 3.9%, the highest since the start of 2022. That’s also consistent with softer labor-market conditions and more restrained wage growth, helping soothe concerns about inflation and supporting assessments that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.

The jobs report is forecast to show November average hourly earnings increased 4% from a year ago, the smallest annual advance since mid-2021.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“November’s job report will send mixed signals about the state of the labor market. A solid nonfarm payroll print following a resolution to the UAW strikes will contrast with a weak household survey, where we expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.0%. Our view is that the economy is likely in a turning point toward a recession.”